{"version":2,"updated":"2026-09-09","tracks":[{"id":"social","name":"社交 / 信息分发","logic":"文字异步社区 → PC 熟人即时聊天 → 熟人图文 SNS → 公共短图文广场 → 移动端熟人 IM 超级生态 → 算法图文信息流 → 算法短视频","chain":["BBS 论坛","QQ","校园社区","微博","微信","今日头条","快手/抖音"],"next":{"name":"AI 原生代理 / 意图社交","era":"下一代","why":"创作与办事门槛降到「一句话」；公域流量被超级入口内化，独立爆发点在代理完成任务与新媒介形态。"},"milestones":[{"era":"1995–2003","name":"网页 BBS 论坛","examples":["天涯","猫扑"],"trigger":"拨号上网只能承载文字；少数 PC 网民；异步匿名公共文字广场。"},{"era":"1999","name":"QQ（OICQ）","examples":["QQ"],"trigger":"一对一即时私聊需求；宽带支持图片与文件传输。"},{"era":"2005–2008","name":"SNS 校园社区","examples":["校内网/人人网","开心网"],"trigger":"宽带普及图片可加载；熟人社交 + 社交游戏裂变。"},{"era":"2009","name":"微博","examples":["新浪微博"],"trigger":"140 字轻内容；名人与突发事件；公共实时信息流广场。"},{"era":"2011","name":"微信","examples":["微信"],"trigger":"3G + 智能机；轻量化熟人 IM；朋友圈 / 支付 / 小程序迭代成超级入口。"},{"era":"2012","name":"今日头条","examples":["今日头条"],"trigger":"流量提升；懒得主动搜；算法个性化图文信息流。"},{"era":"2014–2016","name":"短视频算法流","examples":["快手","抖音"],"trigger":"4G 全覆盖 + 资费下降 + 手机摄像头；视频化公共信息流。"}]},{"id":"ecommerce","name":"电商购物","logic":"同城线下二手 → 平台 C2C 网店 → B2C 自营/品牌商城 → 独立二手平台 → 社交拼团电商 → 短视频内容直播电商","chain":["同城二手","淘宝 C2C","京东 B2C","闲鱼","拼多多","直播电商"],"next":{"name":"AI 导购 + 即时履约电商","era":"下一代","why":"内容与交易已融合；下一跳是自然语言找货/比价/下单，以及更高密度的本地即时履约。"},"milestones":[{"era":"1990s–2002","name":"同城二手 / 早期 C2C","examples":["本地论坛二手","易趣"],"trigger":"网民少、信任差，优先同城当面交易。"},{"era":"2003","name":"淘宝","examples":["淘宝","支付宝担保"],"trigger":"非典催生线上购物；担保交易解决信任。"},{"era":"2004","name":"京东线上","examples":["京东"],"trigger":"正品 + 自建物流；3C 差异化。"},{"era":"2012–2014","name":"闲鱼","examples":["闲鱼"],"trigger":"淘宝存量闲置一键转卖。"},{"era":"2015","name":"拼多多","examples":["拼多多"],"trigger":"微信红利 + 下沉市场 + 拼团裂变。"},{"era":"2016+","name":"直播电商","examples":["淘宝直播","抖音带货","快手带货"],"trigger":"4G 短视频基建；内容流量直接转化成交。"}]},{"id":"payment","name":"移动支付","logic":"网银网页 → 第三方担保支付 → 移动扫码支付，成为所有 APP 底层基础设施","chain":["网银网页","支付宝担保","微信支付/扫码"],"next":{"name":"无感支付 + 可信身份层","era":"下一代","why":"支付已成默认可调用基建；下一形态是生物识别/车载/IoT 无感扣款与跨场景可信身份。"},"milestones":[{"era":"2004","name":"支付宝独立","examples":["支付宝"],"trigger":"网购信任痛点；扩展缴费与线下扫码。"},{"era":"2013–2015","name":"微信支付","examples":["微信支付"],"trigger":"熟人社交红包绑卡；支付嵌入聊天场景。"}]},{"id":"local","name":"本地生活 / O2O","logic":"商户信息点评 → 团购优惠 → 即时外卖 → 全品类本地生活服务","chain":["大众点评","团购/美团","外卖即时配","一站式本地生活"],"next":{"name":"银发 / 县域深度履约","era":"下一代","why":"超级 APP 覆盖主路径后，增量在被服务不足的老龄、县域与高信任到家场景。"},"milestones":[{"era":"2003","name":"大众点评网页","examples":["大众点评"],"trigger":"商户图文评价。"},{"era":"2010","name":"千团大战 / 美团","examples":["美团"],"trigger":"PC 宽带成熟；团购引流线下门店。"},{"era":"2015+","name":"外卖与一站式","examples":["美团","大众点评"],"trigger":"智能机 + 移动支付；骑手网络；到店/外卖/买药/酒店等扩展。"}]},{"id":"mobility","name":"出行","logic":"电话呼叫中心 → 智能匹配网约车 → 多品类出行平台","chain":["电话叫车","滴滴网约车","多品类出行"],"next":{"name":"自动驾驶调度 / 出行代理","era":"下一代","why":"匹配与支付已成熟；下一跳取决于 Robotaxi 成本曲线与「一句话叫车到站」的代理体验。"},"milestones":[{"era":"2012","name":"滴滴出行","examples":["滴滴"],"trigger":"GPS + 移动支付；补贴教育用户；出租车→快车/专车/顺风车。"}]},{"id":"longvideo","name":"长视频流媒体","logic":"用户上传长视频 → 正版版权长视频 → 弹幕社区大众化","chain":["优酷土豆 UGC","爱优腾正版","B站弹幕社区"],"next":{"name":"互动影剧 / AI 共创长内容","era":"下一代","why":"版权长视频见顶后，增量在互动叙事、弹幕社区深化与 AI 辅助共创降低制作门槛。"},"milestones":[{"era":"2005","name":"优酷 / 土豆","examples":["优酷","土豆"],"trigger":"用户上传长视频。"},{"era":"2010前后","name":"爱优腾正版","examples":["爱奇艺","腾讯视频","优酷"],"trigger":"光纤入户；正版版权规范化。"},{"era":"2009+","name":"B 站","examples":["哔哩哔哩"],"trigger":"弹幕互动；亚文化走向全民；正版与知识内容扩展。"}]},{"id":"search","name":"搜索","logic":"PC 网页检索入口 → 移动端被内容内部分发 APP 分流","chain":["百度网页搜索","移动搜索/信息流","内容内部分发分流"],"next":{"name":"对话式检索 / AI 答案引擎","era":"下一代","why":"链接列表被答案与代理替代；入口从「关键词」变成「意图对话」。"},"milestones":[{"era":"2000","name":"百度","examples":["百度"],"trigger":"网页爆发需要检索；移动时代被微信/抖音等内部分发分流。"}]}],"caveats":["抖音不是 IM，是算法信息流社交。","微博是公共广场；QQ/微信是私人即时通讯；BBS 是社区讨论。"]}